2306, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, June 21, 2015

By |June 23rd, 2015|0 Comments

Nothing much to cheer about. The Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates in June, as expected, but it’s statement Wednesday suggests the long awaited rate hike will come in September. Or, maybe in October or December as it wants to see “further improvement” in jobs and wage growth and inflation closer to 2%. […]

1706, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, June 14, 2015

By |June 17th, 2015|0 Comments

Bond prices ended the week on a positive note after a rocky 5 day yield rally. The 10 year UST note spiked to a yield of 2.49% last Wednesday before closing the week at 2.39%. Yields as shown above are not reflective of last week’s volatility as trader confusion persisted until we got some positive news out of […]

306, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, May 31, 2015

By |June 3rd, 2015|0 Comments

Big news! First quarter GDP was revised down from +0.2% to -0.7%, mostly due to a wider trade deficit and less inventory accumulation but the bond market was more focused on the headlines coming out of Greece where they have until June 5th to pay £150 billion to the IMF. It is the majority opinion that Greece will […]

2605, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve May 24, 2015

By |May 26th, 2015|0 Comments

The bond market was a little shaky last week in response to mixed economic data and comments from the Fed. The curve saw increases in yields longer than 3 years as market participants stewed over the prospects for a Fed tightening later this year. It is not clear exactly what the Fed intends to do, […]

1805, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, May 18, 2015

By |May 18th, 2015|0 Comments

The U.S. Economy continues to show signs of weakness and Fed officials have gone silent. Consumers are still not spending as evidenced by last week’s retail sales data plus a persistent lack of wage growth. Retail sales were flat in April and economists are now suggesting a second quarter growth rate well below expectation. (In fact, the Atlanta Fed […]

1105, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, May 10, 2015

By |May 11th, 2015|0 Comments

April jobs rebound to 223,000; unemployment rate 5.4%, wage growth sluggish, and modest payroll gains. Not what should be considered a good report but an improvement over February and March as each were revised significantly lower. Unemployment is back to 2008 low of 5.4% which is great after 6 years of zero rates and a ton of money poured […]

2704, 2015

UST Yield Curve 4-26-15

By |April 27th, 2015|0 Comments

Watch the dollar! It dropped for a second week, raising questions about the Fed’s intent in regard to raising rates. The dollar fell as orders for durable goods, manufacturing, and new home sales all came in weaker than expected. These numbers will certainly be viewed as reflective of “slow growth” at the FOMC meeting this week. Also, the first […]

2004, 2015

UST Yield Curve 4-19-2015

By |April 20th, 2015|0 Comments

A lot to do about nothing! The dollar fell the most in a month last week but remains quite strong versus the 19-nation Euro currency. A lot of the concern is a little slack in the U.S. economy and whether or not Greece will fulfill its financial obligations. The dollar decline was partially a result of weaker than […]

1304, 2015

UST Yield Curve 4-12-2015

By |April 13th, 2015|0 Comments

Although bond yields rose last week, rates across the curve are significantly lower since the beginning of the year. The primary reason is the expectation that the first quarter GDP will be lower than originally believed. Economists are now thinking 1.4% rather than the 2.9% forecast just 2 months back. For the full year, GDP growth is still expected […]

604, 2015

UST Curve 4-4-15

By |April 6th, 2015|0 Comments

So much for back to normal! The March jobs report was much worse than anticipated and the bond market responded as rates declined across the curve. While the economy added 126,000 new jobs, it was much less than the forecast estimate of 248,000 and was the lowest since December 2013. (The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5%.) The bond […]