2803, 2016

Rate hike likely in June with oil, the dollar, and inflation playing their role

By |March 28th, 2016|0 Comments

The long Easter holiday weekend is a good time to reflect and ponder about the prospects for higher interest rates, world events, and a few other forgotten matters. It appears that Chair Yellen has a “mini revolt” on her hands as St. Louis Fed President Bullard, Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, and Richmond Fed President Lacker are publicly suggesting […]

2103, 2016

Bond market reacts, rates unchanged for now, mixed signals abound

By |March 21st, 2016|0 Comments

The bond market is doing the “happy dance” in response to last week’s FOMC meeting. But what
did the Fed say that we did not already know that would cause such a reaction? They are keeping
overnight rates unchanged for the moment and are suggesting that rates will rise more gradually
this year than earlier envisioned. The officials […]

1403, 2016

Will oil rally and rising stocks effect the Fed?

By |March 14th, 2016|0 Comments

Will the recent rise in the price of oil and a much improved stock market influence the Fed at its upcoming FOMC meeting? Absolutely! The Fed’s itch to hike rates another 25 bps is likely to be scratched no later than their June 14-15 meeting. A string of positive news has caused the Fed to put further rate […]

703, 2016

Bonds rise on rosy economic news but Fed rate and global concerns will drive sentiment

By |March 7th, 2016|0 Comments

Bond yields rose again this past week, mostly in response to better-than-expected economic news and positive gains in the stock market. Both the Dow and S&P were up over 2.2% for the week, oil was back above $36 per barrel, and the employment report was very good. Job growth for the month of February was a solid 242,000 […]

1502, 2016

Negative interest rate talk sends bond yields into nosedive.

By |February 15th, 2016|0 Comments

Has the Fed finally painted themselves into a corner? This question has been asked many times over the past several years. However, a growing number of respected economists are now suggesting that perhaps this scenario is playing out like a bad play. The Fed believes they are on a path of normalizing interest rates but fail to understand […]

2501, 2016

Blizzards and volatility won’t stop Fed from “sticking to their guns”

By |January 25th, 2016|0 Comments

A powerful winter storm has put a halt to normal winter activities as much of the Southeast and Northeast of the U.S. are deep under snow this weekend. More than 8500 flights have been canceled, thousands of homes and businesses are without power, and motorists are stranded on the roads from Nashville, TN to Boston, MA. We got about […]

1801, 2016

Will the Fed stay quiet amidst the turmoil?

By |January 18th, 2016|0 Comments

Is it time to rethink the direction of interest rates for 2016? Cheap oil and international concerns have unexpectedly turned a positive U.S. outlook into despair. Bond yields are lower across the curve, stocks have tanked, and the market’s mood has shifted from optimism to pessimism. What was thought to be a solid pick-up in […]

1101, 2016

Volatile market down 6.2% last week,

By |January 11th, 2016|0 Comments

What happened this past week? The markets were extremely volatile as stocks had their worst showing for a new year in history, the December employment report was solid, bonds rebounded, and global uncertainties persisted. The DOW was off 6.2% for the week, the U.S. added an unexpected 292,000 jobs in December, and there were negative currency moves in China. […]

401, 2016

US Treasury Yield Curve, 1-1-16

By |January 4th, 2016|0 Comments

The Fed raised its overnight rate by 25 bps for the first time in nearly a decade on December 16th, an event that has yet been fully digested by the financial markets. Although trading volume has been significantly lessened due to the holidays, yields have moved higher across the curve. The immediate impact has been […]

2812, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, 12-27-15

By |December 28th, 2015|0 Comments

The Christmas shortened week was filled with a few sluggish surprises and a slight increase in bond yields. The 2 year UST note traded back above 1% while the longer end of the curve dropped back below 3%, thus a modest flattening of the yield curve. The final revision to 3rd Qtr GDP was as […]