1304, 2015

UST Yield Curve 4-12-2015

By |April 13th, 2015|0 Comments

Although bond yields rose last week, rates across the curve are significantly lower since the beginning of the year. The primary reason is the expectation that the first quarter GDP will be lower than originally believed. Economists are now thinking 1.4% rather than the 2.9% forecast just 2 months back. For the full year, GDP growth is still expected […]

604, 2015

2015 Yield Projections

By |April 6th, 2015|0 Comments

The highest and lowest of the 15 forecasters were eliminated. Each forecaster represents a Federal Reserve reporting dealer.
The yield curve flattens modestly each quarter as the Fed becomes more restrictive. ( It appears that each forecaster assumes a 50 basis point rate hike this June.) They have been wrong for the past 2 years!
According to the 15 forecasters: […]

604, 2015

UST Curve 4-4-15

By |April 6th, 2015|0 Comments

So much for back to normal! The March jobs report was much worse than anticipated and the bond market responded as rates declined across the curve. While the economy added 126,000 new jobs, it was much less than the forecast estimate of 248,000 and was the lowest since December 2013. (The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5%.) The bond […]

3003, 2015

What is a Yield Curve?

By |March 30th, 2015|Comments Off on What is a Yield Curve?

In finance, the yield curve is a curve showing several yields, or interest rates, across different maturity durations for a similar debt instrument. The curve shows risk relationships between shorter term bonds and longer term bonds as relates to the interest rate. Risk refers to the time value of the bond, and by definition, longer […]

3003, 2015

UST Curve 3-29-2015

By |March 30th, 2015|Comments Off on UST Curve 3-29-2015

The first quarter of 2015 is only several days from completion. Looking at the yields above, it appears that the bond market was pretty calm during the quarter with slightly lower rates on the longer end of the curve. However, anything could be further from reality as the markets experienced unprecedented volatility throughout the quarter, […]