401, 2016

US Treasury Yield Curve, 1-1-16

By |January 4th, 2016|0 Comments

The Fed raised its overnight rate by 25 bps for the first time in nearly a decade on December 16th, an event that has yet been fully digested by the financial markets. Although trading volume has been significantly lessened due to the holidays, yields have moved higher across the curve. The immediate impact has been […]

2812, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, 12-27-15

By |December 28th, 2015|0 Comments

The Christmas shortened week was filled with a few sluggish surprises and a slight increase in bond yields. The 2 year UST note traded back above 1% while the longer end of the curve dropped back below 3%, thus a modest flattening of the yield curve. The final revision to 3rd Qtr GDP was as […]

2112, 2015

US Treasury Yield, 12-20-2015

By |December 21st, 2015|0 Comments

The Fed boosted its overnight rate by 25 bps last week, and now what? The rate the Fed pays on both required and excess reserves ($4 trillion) has increased from .25% to .50%, which is actually quite small relative to their annual revenues. Additionally, they voted to expand the capacity of their reverse repo facility […]

1412, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, Dec. 14, 2015

By |December 14th, 2015|0 Comments

Oil plunges below $36, stocks tank, bonds improve, and the Fed is ready. What a way to finish the week! Last week’s economic data was mixed but there was nothing reported that would cause the Fed to reverse course. On the bright side: retail sales were a bit better than expected, PPI rose at its […]

712, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, Dec. 6

By |December 7th, 2015|0 Comments

A 25 bps rate hike appears like a done deal for December 16th and the markets are already suggesting another 25 bps next March. The November jobs report was above expectations by 10,000 as nonfarm payrolls grew 211,000. (The participation rate was up slightly from 62.4% to 62.5%.) The previous 2 months were revised upward […]

1709, 2015

Fed Interest Rate Hike (Maybe or Maybe Not)

By |September 17th, 2015|0 Comments

The Federal Reserve will announce today at 2 PM whether or not they will hike interest rates. (followed by Chair Yellen’s new’s conference.) Will this be the first hike since 2006? The forecasters remain equally split as the evidence provides no definitive clue but the federal funds futures market is suggesting a 30% chance of a 25 bps increase. […]

3108, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, 8-30-2015

By |August 31st, 2015|0 Comments

Will the Fed pull the trigger at either the September, October, or December FOMC meeting? I believe the financial markets are so fed-up with “will they or won’t they” that any rate hike this year will be viewed as a non-event. The probability is 90% certain that we will see the Fed do what needs to be done […]

1708, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, 8-16-2015

By |August 17th, 2015|0 Comments

The big news last week came out of China. The People’s Bank of China (POBC) devalued the Yuan by 3.5% in an effort to stabilize its stock market but it also had unintended international effects. More importantly, it gives pause to other central banks on the cusp of devaluing their own currencies. It does not appear that any real […]

1008, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, 8-9-2015

By |August 10th, 2015|0 Comments

Bond yields are pretty much unchanged since the first of the year but the ride has been anything but smooth. The forecasters have been trying to predict when the Fed might begin to normalize monetary policy with its first rate hike in 9 years. Neither Fed officials, economists, or market experts have been tuned in to the realities that […]

708, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, 8-2-2015

By |August 7th, 2015|0 Comments

The UST market rallied last week as investors perceived the likelihood of a Fed rate hike shifting from September to December. The 2 year UST was down 7 basis points to .67% and the 10 year UST fell from 2.32% to 2.20%. Comments from the FOMC meeting produced no evidence in regard to future policy but the market’s were […]