About Darren Miller

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So far Darren Miller has created 39 blog entries.
2707, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, July 26, 2015

By |July 27th, 2015|0 Comments

Does “a nose dive” in industrial commodity prices matter? In regard to future monetary policy and the prospects for inflation, it matters a lot. In fact, there has never been an instance in the past where the Fed has raised interest rates when commodity prices were depressed. It is interesting to note that the Bloomberg Commodity Index, dominated by […]

2007, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, July 20, 2015

By |July 20th, 2015|0 Comments

The yield curve experienced a soft flattening last week as prices on the longer duration bonds were slightly improved. The question remains unchanged: Will the Fed raise rates during the fourth quarter, regardless of market disagreement? Chair Yellen in her Congressional testimony said that “there was no prescribed date for raising rates and that the decision will be data […]

1307, 2015

Q1 & Q2 Financial Review

By |July 13th, 2015|0 Comments

The Economy and the Federal Reserve Bank – The third and final revision for the first quarter GDP of 2015 was a dismal -.2% and the second quarter will likely be soft but much better. Most forecasters believe that the final revision for the second quarter will range from +.9% to +1.6% as the consumer […]

1307, 2015

US Treasury Yield, 7-12-2015

By |July 13th, 2015|0 Comments

“THINGS ARE GETTING BETTER,” Chair Yellen stated in a prepared speech delivered in Cleveland last week. She reiterated that interest hikes are still on track for later this year amid signs of wage gains and the potential for inflation. She said that “based on my outlook, I expect it will be appropriate to raise the funds rate and begin […]

2906, 2015

US Treasury Yield, June 29, 2015

By |June 29th, 2015|0 Comments

The yield curve steepened last week as longer duration bonds reacted to uncertainties in the Eurozone. Greece and its creditors are still far-apart in their negotiations with time running out. While the long-end of the curve collapsed, the shorter-end was unchanged. The 2 year UST at .72% and the 3 year at 1.09% continue to […]

2306, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, June 21, 2015

By |June 23rd, 2015|0 Comments

Nothing much to cheer about. The Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates in June, as expected, but it’s statement Wednesday suggests the long awaited rate hike will come in September. Or, maybe in October or December as it wants to see “further improvement” in jobs and wage growth and inflation closer to 2%. […]

1706, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, June 14, 2015

By |June 17th, 2015|0 Comments

Bond prices ended the week on a positive note after a rocky 5 day yield rally. The 10 year UST note spiked to a yield of 2.49% last Wednesday before closing the week at 2.39%. Yields as shown above are not reflective of last week’s volatility as trader confusion persisted until we got some positive news out of […]

306, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, May 31, 2015

By |June 3rd, 2015|0 Comments

Big news! First quarter GDP was revised down from +0.2% to -0.7%, mostly due to a wider trade deficit and less inventory accumulation but the bond market was more focused on the headlines coming out of Greece where they have until June 5th to pay £150 billion to the IMF. It is the majority opinion that Greece will […]

2605, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve May 24, 2015

By |May 26th, 2015|0 Comments

The bond market was a little shaky last week in response to mixed economic data and comments from the Fed. The curve saw increases in yields longer than 3 years as market participants stewed over the prospects for a Fed tightening later this year. It is not clear exactly what the Fed intends to do, […]

1805, 2015

US Treasury Yield Curve, May 18, 2015

By |May 18th, 2015|0 Comments

The U.S. Economy continues to show signs of weakness and Fed officials have gone silent. Consumers are still not spending as evidenced by last week’s retail sales data plus a persistent lack of wage growth. Retail sales were flat in April and economists are now suggesting a second quarter growth rate well below expectation. (In fact, the Atlanta Fed […]